This is my model. There are many ones like it, but this one is mine.
It is a Bayesian generalized linear mixed model of the price of Bitcoin in USD terms using its progression through halvings $\left(^{total\ blocks\ mined}/_{210,000}\right)$. It is in the family of “Power Law” models that are common, but those generally use the number of days from genesis. My research has shown that halving progression may be more appropriate.
I have never done a formal write up on the model and its assumptions, but I plan to in the near future. Some details may be found here.
All data has been sourced from the Coin Metrics data archives.
This is an alternate model that I've developed. As above, I don't have a formal write-up on it, though you may find some details here.
All data has been sourced from the Coin Metrics data archives.